Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 11 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 240 at 07:55 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–37%.

Safest bet that day WN 240 ATL 07:55 → MDW 09:04 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 2779 ATL 17:00 → MDW 18:13 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 64% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 240 Southwest	ATL 07:55	MDW 09:04	5%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 271 Southwest	ATL 12:06	MDW 13:16	10%	4%	0.9%	no record
DL 1063 Delta Flight history →	ATL 09:09	MDW 10:05	11%	2%	0.7%	88%
DL 2417 Delta Flight history →	ATL 11:00	MDW 11:56	13%	3%	0.9%	88%
WN 3195 Southwest	ATL 14:51	MDW 15:59	22%	7%	6.4%	no record
DL 1728 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:15	MDW 16:15	23%	7%	4.2%	77%
DL 1076 Delta Flight history →	ATL 21:15	MDW 22:15	26%	7%	1.7%	77%
WN 309 Southwest	ATL 18:33	MDW 19:41	29%	9%	4.8%	no record
WN 246 Southwest	ATL 20:55	MDW 22:03	30%	9%	1.9%	no record
F9 2291 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 22:53	MDW 00:06	34%	22%	2.9%	68%
F9 2779 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 17:00	MDW 18:13	37%	16%	7.4%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON