Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 11 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: DL 2501 at 00:05 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–31%.

Safest bet that day DL 2501 ATL 00:05 → MEM 00:31 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time Riskiest DL 1577 ATL 21:49 → MEM 22:12 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


DL 2501 Delta Flight history →	ATL 00:05	MEM 00:31	11%	3%	0.7%	76%
DL 2071 Delta Flight history →	ATL 09:10	MEM 09:27	13%	2%	0.7%	90%
DL 2778 Delta Flight history →	ATL 12:15	MEM 12:32	13%	3%	0.7%	88%
DL 2937 Delta Flight history →	ATL 10:10	MEM 10:32	16%	2%	0.7%	89%
DL 733 Delta	ATL 13:48	MEM 14:14	17%	3%	0.7%	no record
DL 1700 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:11	MEM 15:33	21%	3%	0.7%	81%
DL 1681 Delta Flight history →	ATL 16:40	MEM 17:06	22%	4%	0.7%	83%
DL 3020 Delta	ATL 20:08	MEM 20:32	30%	5%	0.7%	no record
DL 2939 Delta Flight history →	ATL 17:52	MEM 18:15	31%	5%	0.7%	78%
DL 1577 Delta Flight history →	ATL 21:49	MEM 22:12	31%	5%	0.7%	76%
DL 5247 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	ATL 07:25	MEM 07:47	12%	6%	0.0%	88%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON