Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 17 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 3190 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 28–46%.

Safest bet that day AA 3190 ATL 07:00 → MIA 09:05 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest DL 719 ATL 16:25 → MIA 18:22 · 46% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3190 American Flight history →	ATL 07:00	MIA 09:05	12%	4%	0.8%	86%
DL 2836 Delta Flight history →	ATL 07:30	MIA 09:30	13%	3%	2.0%	90%
DL 1510 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:55	MIA 10:57	15%	4%	1.8%	84%
AA 1912 American	ATL 08:17	MIA 10:20	19%	6%	2.4%	no record
AA 2526 American Flight history →	ATL 09:00	MIA 11:07	22%	6%	1.9%	84%
F9 4406 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 08:30	MIA 10:34	24%	8%	2.0%	74%
DL 1332 Delta Flight history →	ATL 11:05	MIA 13:07	25%	5%	3.4%	82%
AA 1046 American Flight history →	ATL 10:50	MIA 12:53	25%	7%	3.2%	86%worse than usual
DL 1589 Delta Flight history →	ATL 22:53	MIA 00:55	28%	7%	1.0%	69%
DL 1234 Delta Flight history →	ATL 21:37	MIA 23:39	31%	8%	1.0%	65%
DL 1386 Delta Flight history →	ATL 14:50	MIA 16:55	37%	11%	3.4%	63%
AA 1368 American Flight history →	ATL 18:55	MIA 20:59	38%	12%	1.3%	62%
DL 1588 Delta Flight history →	ATL 19:53	MIA 21:59	38%	11%	1.4%	66%
DL 1323 Delta Flight history →	ATL 13:33	MIA 15:30	38%	9%	3.6%	63%
F9 2272 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 18:31	MIA 20:36	45%	17%	1.7%	67%worse than usual
F9 3442 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 13:35	MIA 15:41	46%	18%	4.7%	51%
DL 719 Delta	ATL 16:25	MIA 18:22	46%	12%	2.0%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON