Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: DL 2999 at 08:04 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–22%.

Safest bet that day DL 2999 ATL 08:04 → MKE 09:05 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest DL 2388 ATL 19:48 → MKE 20:54 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2999 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:04	MKE 09:05	6%	2%	0.7%	91%
DL 1151 Delta Flight history →	ATL 10:51	MKE 11:53	10%	2%	0.7%	90%
DL 2152 Delta Flight history →	ATL 14:10	MKE 15:09	15%	3%	0.7%	84%
DL 1268 Delta Flight history →	ATL 22:52	MKE 23:56	18%	5%	0.8%	81%
DL 1206 Delta Flight history →	ATL 16:37	MKE 17:40	21%	4%	0.8%	75%
DL 8888 Delta	ATL 16:37	MKE 17:41	21%	4%	0.8%	no record
DL 2388 Delta Flight history →	ATL 19:48	MKE 20:54	22%	5%	0.8%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON