Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 22 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: DL 1178 at 07:25 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 29–59%.

Safest bet that day DL 1178 ATL 07:25 → ORD 08:35 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest F9 1595 ATL 18:23 → ORD 19:53 · 59% chance 15+ min late · usually 57% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1178 Delta Flight history →	ATL 07:25	ORD 08:35	11%	4%	0.8%	88%
UA 1955 United	ATL 08:07	ORD 09:30	14%	5%	0.7%	no record
DL 1147 Delta Flight history →	ATL 09:02	ORD 10:10	14%	4%	0.9%	80%
AA 1762 American	ATL 07:28	ORD 08:46	15%	6%	1.1%	no record
UA 1288 United	ATL 11:09	ORD 12:25	17%	7%	0.8%	no record
DL 2894 Delta Flight history →	ATL 11:08	ORD 12:20	19%	5%	0.9%	70%
AA 1041 American	ATL 10:45	ORD 12:01	19%	9%	1.2%	no record
F9 1441 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 06:35	ORD 07:53	21%	7%	1.3%	73%
AA 2620 American	ATL 12:06	ORD 13:22	22%	9%	1.3%	no record
UA 745 United Flight history →	ATL 13:18	ORD 14:41	29%	14%	1.2%	81%
DL 1199 Delta Flight history →	ATL 22:40	ORD 23:53	29%	14%	1.2%	71%
DL 1477 Delta Flight history →	ATL 13:15	ORD 14:27	31%	10%	1.9%	76%
AA 3059 American	ATL 14:20	ORD 15:36	36%	19%	4.1%	no record
DL 2738 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:50	ORD 17:12	40%	17%	1.9%	62%
AA 2096 American	ATL 20:21	ORD 21:45	40%	20%	2.1%	no record
UA 516 United Flight history →	ATL 15:30	ORD 16:57	41%	17%	1.6%	74%worse than usual
UA 2657 United	ATL 19:08	ORD 20:25	44%	23%	1.4%	no record
UA 1850 United	ATL 18:58	ORD 20:07	45%	23%	1.4%	no record
DL 1139 Delta Flight history →	ATL 19:39	ORD 20:50	47%	19%	1.5%	60%
DL 2879 Delta Flight history →	ATL 17:20	ORD 18:45	53%	19%	1.9%	49%
AA 616 American Flight history →	ATL 17:02	ORD 18:19	54%	22%	2.3%	75%worse than usual
F9 1595 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 18:23	ORD 19:53	59%	25%	4.3%	57%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON