Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 9 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: DL 1336 at 07:31 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–29%.

Safest bet that day DL 1336 ATL 07:31 → ORF 09:09 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest DL 2731 ATL 20:42 → ORF 22:28 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1336 Delta Flight history →	ATL 07:31	ORF 09:09	6%	3%	0.8%	91%
DL 2755 Delta Flight history →	ATL 09:46	ORF 11:28	8%	3%	0.7%	89%
DL 2925 Delta Flight history →	ATL 12:28	ORF 14:14	13%	4%	0.7%	83%
DL 1101 Delta Flight history →	ATL 13:53	ORF 15:34	17%	4%	0.7%	74%
F9 3072 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 09:28	ORF 11:15	20%	10%	0.9%	79%
DL 2338 Delta Flight history →	ATL 23:45	ORF 01:19	20%	6%	0.9%	80%
DL 1346 Delta Flight history →	ATL 17:07	ORF 18:54	26%	7%	0.8%	69%
DL 2984 Delta Flight history →	ATL 19:54	ORF 21:42	28%	7%	0.8%	76%
DL 2731 Delta Flight history →	ATL 20:42	ORF 22:28	29%	7%	0.8%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON