Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: DL 539 at 08:30 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–27%.

Safest bet that day DL 539 ATL 08:30 → PDX 10:25 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time Riskiest DL 691 ATL 19:48 → PDX 21:52 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 539 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:30	PDX 10:25	9%	2%	0.7%	84%
DL 2206 Delta Flight history →	ATL 11:00	PDX 12:58	14%	3%	0.7%	84%
DL 503 Delta Flight history →	ATL 16:52	PDX 18:56	20%	5%	0.7%	74%
AS 783 Alaska Flight history →	ATL 18:00	PDX 20:24	23%	4%	0.8%	83%
DL 691 Delta Flight history →	ATL 19:48	PDX 21:52	27%	6%	0.7%	76%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	ATL 08:52 → DEN 10:05UA 340	1h 22m Denver	DEN 11:27 → PDX 13:09UA 644	7h 17m	93%	76%
Delta Details →	ATL 08:15 → SLC 10:14DL 830	1h 01m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:15 → PDX 12:10DL 1209	6h 55m	88%	75%
United Details →	ATL 11:10 → DEN 12:28UA 1327	59m Denver	DEN 13:27 → PDX 15:13UA 2455	7h 03m	85%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON