Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 18 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 3270 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–52%.

Safest bet that day AA 3270 ATL 06:00 → PHL 08:10 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest F9 2552 ATL 17:02 → PHL 19:20 · 52% chance 15+ min late · usually 46% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3270 American Flight history →	ATL 06:00	PHL 08:10	6%	4%	0.8%	93%
DL 1100 Delta Flight history →	ATL 07:30	PHL 09:31	9%	2%	0.8%	86%
AA 1428 American Flight history →	ATL 07:05	PHL 09:15	9%	4%	0.8%	91%
YX 4755 Republic	ATL 09:46	PHL 12:04	9%	3%	0.7%	no record
DL 2270 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:55	PHL 10:57	10%	2%	0.8%	87%
DL 2279 Delta Flight history →	ATL 11:21	PHL 13:24	14%	3%	0.8%	86%
F9 1004 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 05:05	PHL 07:15	15%	6%	1.0%	71%
AA 844 American	ATL 12:28	PHL 14:39	17%	7%	1.0%	no record
DL 1692 Delta Flight history →	ATL 14:00	PHL 16:04	21%	6%	0.8%	69%
DL 2131 Delta Flight history →	ATL 13:00	PHL 15:02	22%	4%	0.8%	73%
DL 2642 Delta Flight history →	ATL 22:56	PHL 00:59	25%	6%	1.2%	78%
AA 3083 American Flight history →	ATL 14:02	PHL 16:13	25%	9%	0.9%	59%
DL 1329 Delta Flight history →	ATL 16:05	PHL 18:12	27%	7%	1.0%	62%
DL 1174 Delta Flight history →	ATL 20:23	PHL 22:28	28%	7%	1.0%	76%
DL 2065 Delta Flight history →	ATL 19:15	PHL 21:20	31%	8%	1.1%	65%
AA 2405 American	ATL 20:32	PHL 22:38	36%	10%	1.3%	no record
F9 1102 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 20:12	PHL 22:28	49%	21%	1.8%	47%
F9 2552 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 17:02	PHL 19:20	52%	22%	1.4%	46%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON