Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 10 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 2097 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 30–42%.

Safest bet that day WN 2097 ATL 06:00 → PHX 07:00 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 250 ATL 20:55 → PHX 21:55 · 42% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2097 Southwest	ATL 06:00	PHX 07:00	7%	1%	0.7%	no record
AA 1777 American Flight history →	ATL 07:48	PHX 09:00	14%	6%	0.7%	88%
DL 348 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:10	PHX 09:01	14%	3%	0.7%	81%
DL 796 Delta Flight history →	ATL 11:10	PHX 12:03	19%	4%	0.7%	81%
DL 366 Delta Flight history →	ATL 13:35	PHX 14:18	21%	5%	0.7%	83%
AA 2064 American	ATL 18:15	PHX 19:21	30%	12%	0.8%	no record
DL 836 Delta Flight history →	ATL 17:59	PHX 18:53	34%	9%	0.7%	73%
DL 842 Delta Flight history →	ATL 21:45	PHX 22:39	34%	10%	0.9%	75%
DL 929 Delta	ATL 20:44	PHX 21:40	37%	10%	0.8%	no record
WN 250 Southwest	ATL 20:55	PHX 21:55	42%	11%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON