Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: DL 2511 at 09:23 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 28–30%.

Safest bet that day DL 2511 ATL 09:23 → ROC 11:31 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time Riskiest DL 2472 ATL 21:39 → ROC 23:48 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2511 Delta Flight history →	ATL 09:23	ROC 11:31	15%	3%	0.7%	84%
DL 2047 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:15	ROC 17:20	28%	5%	0.7%	76%
DL 2472 Delta Flight history →	ATL 21:39	ROC 23:48	30%	7%	0.8%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON