Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: DL 1676 at 08:20 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 27–30%.

Safest bet that day DL 1676 ATL 08:20 → SAT 09:43 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest DL 1222 ATL 20:52 → SAT 22:19 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1676 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:20	SAT 09:43	11%	3%	0.7%	92%
WN 1312 Southwest	ATL 09:10	SAT 10:45	11%	3%	0.5%	no record
DL 1408 Delta Flight history →	ATL 12:15	SAT 13:38	15%	3%	0.7%	86%
DL 2009 Delta Flight history →	ATL 13:45	SAT 15:10	20%	4%	0.7%	81%
DL 1465 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:40	SAT 17:11	23%	5%	0.8%	79%
DL 1508 Delta Flight history →	ATL 22:54	SAT 00:20	27%	6%	0.8%	80%
DL 2893 Delta Flight history →	ATL 17:21	SAT 18:55	27%	6%	0.8%	75%
DL 1222 Delta Flight history →	ATL 20:52	SAT 22:19	30%	7%	0.9%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON