Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 9 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: DL 3011 at 08:15 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–23%.

Safest bet that day DL 3011 ATL 08:15 → SAV 09:16 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest DL 527 ATL 17:59 → SAV 19:08 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 3011 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:15	SAV 09:16	7%	2%	0.8%	91%
DL 3054 Delta Flight history →	ATL 09:23	SAV 10:27	9%	2%	0.7%	86%
DL 1067 Delta Flight history →	ATL 13:32	SAV 14:38	14%	2%	0.8%	83%
DL 3014 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:03	SAV 16:14	15%	3%	0.8%	81%
DL 3112 Delta Flight history →	ATL 16:50	SAV 18:02	18%	4%	0.8%	76%
DL 2860 Delta Flight history →	ATL 22:46	SAV 23:53	18%	5%	0.8%	83%
DL 3168 Delta Flight history →	ATL 21:40	SAV 22:49	21%	5%	0.8%	77%
DL 2425 Delta Flight history →	ATL 20:06	SAV 21:17	22%	5%	0.8%	83%
DL 527 Delta Flight history →	ATL 17:59	SAV 19:08	23%	4%	0.8%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON