Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 11 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: UA 571 at 06:30 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 29–42%.

Safest bet that day UA 571 ATL 06:30 → SFO 08:35 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time Riskiest DL 681 ATL 19:33 → SFO 21:32 · 42% chance 15+ min late · usually 58% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 571 United Flight history →	ATL 06:30	SFO 08:35	11%	4%	0.6%	80%
DL 693 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:25	SFO 10:20	20%	4%	0.6%	81%
DL 750 Delta Flight history →	ATL 12:59	SFO 14:50	24%	5%	0.6%	73%
DL 672 Delta Flight history →	ATL 09:40	SFO 11:33	25%	5%	0.6%	70%
UA 2866 United	ATL 18:05	SFO 20:24	29%	11%	0.7%	no record
DL 823 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:35	SFO 17:31	32%	8%	0.7%	66%
DL 656 Delta Flight history →	ATL 22:40	SFO 00:36	32%	8%	0.6%	70%
DL 495 Delta Flight history →	ATL 18:00	SFO 20:17	34%	9%	0.6%	51%
UA 356 United	ATL 19:27	SFO 21:46	35%	10%	0.7%	no record
F9 1447 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 16:55	SFO 19:18	41%	16%	1.1%	53%
DL 681 Delta Flight history →	ATL 19:33	SFO 21:32	42%	9%	0.7%	58%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	ATL 08:52 → DEN 10:05UA 340	1h 16m Denver	DEN 11:21 → SFO 13:04UA 1561	7h 12m	91%	67%
American Details →	ATL 06:01 → DFW 07:33AA 2770	47m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 08:20 → SFO 10:09AA 2309	7h 08m	88%	62%
United Details →	ATL 11:10 → DEN 12:28UA 1327	57m Denver	DEN 13:25 → SFO 15:09UA 1812	6h 59m	84%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON