Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 15–24% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 854 ATL 13:43 → SGF 14:38 · 15% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 1105 ATL 21:16 → SGF 22:10 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


DL 854 Delta	ATL 13:43	SGF 14:38	15%	6%	0.8%	no record
DL 1105 Delta Flight history →	ATL 21:16	SGF 22:10	24%	11%	0.8%	74%
DL 4707 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	ATL 09:55	SGF 10:52	12%	1%	3.8%	88%
DL 4854 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	ATL 13:49	SGF 14:45	30%	9%	0.0%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON