Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: DL 809 at 09:43 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–24%.

Safest bet that day DL 809 ATL 09:43 → SJC 11:30 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest DL 933 ATL 20:59 → SJC 22:49 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 809 Delta Flight history →	ATL 09:43	SJC 11:30	14%	3%	0.7%	90%
DL 2136 Delta Flight history →	ATL 16:59	SJC 18:52	21%	5%	0.8%	79%
DL 933 Delta Flight history →	ATL 20:59	SJC 22:49	24%	6%	0.8%	85%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	ATL 10:25 → LAX 11:55DL 501	1h 02m Los Angeles	LAX 12:57 → SJC 14:12DL 3842 · flown by SkyWest	6h 47m	83%	69%
Delta Details →	ATL 11:56 → SLC 13:50DL 663	1h 20m Salt Lake City	SLC 15:10 → SJC 16:04DL 1260	7h 08m	88%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON