Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: DL 1930 at 08:13 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 16–32%.

Safest bet that day DL 1930 ATL 08:13 → SJU 11:53 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest F9 2082 ATL 12:29 → SJU 16:17 · 32% chance 15+ min late · usually 57% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1930 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:13	SJU 11:53	11%	2%	0.8%	94%
DL 1882 Delta Flight history →	ATL 09:45	SJU 13:32	16%	3%	1.0%	78%
DL 1946 Delta Flight history →	ATL 13:00	SJU 16:39	21%	4%	0.8%	82%
DL 1861 Delta Flight history →	ATL 18:45	SJU 22:29	25%	7%	0.9%	67%
F9 2082 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 12:29	SJU 16:17	32%	10%	1.2%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON