Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: DL 3196 at 08:17 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–24%.

Safest bet that day DL 3196 ATL 08:17 → SRQ 09:52 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest DL 1057 ATL 21:15 → SRQ 22:52 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 3196 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:17	SRQ 09:52	6%	2%	1.0%	94%
DL 3104 Delta Flight history →	ATL 10:05	SRQ 11:44	11%	3%	1.0%	85%
DL 3115 Delta Flight history →	ATL 13:43	SRQ 15:22	16%	3%	1.2%	80%
DL 2997 Delta Flight history →	ATL 23:07	SRQ 00:45	20%	5%	1.6%	78%
DL 3109 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:34	SRQ 17:13	22%	6%	1.6%	76%
DL 1057 Delta Flight history →	ATL 21:15	SRQ 22:52	24%	7%	2.0%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON