Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 10 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 255 at 06:58 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–39%.

Safest bet that day WN 255 ATL 06:58 → STL 07:49 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4816 ATL 20:15 → STL 21:06 · 39% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 255 Southwest	ATL 06:58	STL 07:49	6%	1%	0.6%	no record
DL 1571 Delta Flight history →	ATL 07:43	STL 08:19	8%	2%	0.8%	92%
DL 1400 Delta Flight history →	ATL 09:04	STL 09:43	11%	3%	0.8%	87%
DL 566 Delta Flight history →	ATL 11:40	STL 12:17	14%	3%	0.8%	83%
DL 543 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:16	STL 16:06	22%	5%	0.7%	81%
DL 1403 Delta Flight history →	ATL 23:10	STL 23:53	23%	6%	0.9%	83%
DL 1393 Delta Flight history →	ATL 17:10	STL 17:53	25%	6%	0.8%	79%
DL 2833 Delta Flight history →	ATL 19:14	STL 20:04	25%	7%	0.8%	76%
WN 9005 Southwest	ATL 14:55	STL 15:46	27%	6%	0.6%	no record
WN 4816 Southwest	ATL 20:15	STL 21:06	39%	7%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON