Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 19 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 1219 at 06:25 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–41%.

Safest bet that day WN 1219 ATL 06:25 → TPA 08:03 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 3054 ATL 20:59 → TPA 22:40 · 41% chance 15+ min late · usually 60% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1219 Southwest	ATL 06:25	TPA 08:03	4%	1%	0.9%	no record
DL 2605 Delta Flight history →	ATL 07:25	TPA 08:54	7%	2%	0.9%	93%
DL 1227 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:29	TPA 09:59	9%	2%	0.7%	91%
DL 1587 Delta Flight history →	ATL 10:00	TPA 11:29	14%	3%	0.7%	82%
DL 1099 Delta Flight history →	ATL 11:10	TPA 12:39	17%	4%	1.3%	85%
DL 1525 Delta Flight history →	ATL 12:46	TPA 14:13	20%	5%	1.1%	80%
DL 8862 Delta	ATL 13:38	TPA 15:11	20%	5%	0.8%	no record
DL 1720 Delta Flight history →	ATL 14:03	TPA 15:36	21%	7%	0.9%	75%
DL 1560 Delta Flight history →	ATL 22:59	TPA 00:29	24%	8%	0.7%	72%
F9 3782 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 10:03	TPA 11:40	24%	10%	1.1%	72%
DL 759 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:25	TPA 16:58	26%	9%	0.8%	70%
DL 1425 Delta Flight history →	ATL 16:25	TPA 17:59	26%	8%	0.8%	74%
DL 1457 Delta Flight history →	ATL 18:22	TPA 19:54	27%	7%	0.8%	69%
DL 1594 Delta Flight history →	ATL 17:22	TPA 18:57	28%	9%	0.8%	66%
DL 1591 Delta Flight history →	ATL 20:59	TPA 22:30	29%	8%	0.8%	62%
DL 3135 Delta	ATL 19:57	TPA 21:29	29%	7%	0.7%	no record
WN 2004 Southwest	ATL 17:40	TPA 19:17	32%	10%	0.7%	no record
F9 2912 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 17:14	TPA 18:52	40%	17%	1.3%	66%
F9 3054 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 20:59	TPA 22:40	41%	17%	1.5%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON