Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: DL 937 at 11:59 is the safest bet, 16% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 30%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 937 Delta Flight history →	ATL 11:59	TUS 12:35	16%	3%	0.7%	87%
DL 1251 Delta Flight history →	ATL 21:05	TUS 21:49	30%	8%	0.8%	77%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tucson on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Tucson is 3 h behind Atlanta). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ATL 10:10 → SLC 12:10DL 387	2h 50m Salt Lake City	SLC 15:00 → TUS 16:06DL 3717 · flown by SkyWest	8h 56m	99%	78%
United Details →	ATL 15:57 → IAH 17:23UA 3992 · flown by Mesa	2h 37m Houston	IAH 20:00 → TUS 20:42UA 4040 · flown by Mesa	7h 45m	93%	78%
Delta Details →	ATL 09:15 → LAX 10:45DL 827	3h 25m Los Angeles	LAX 14:10 → TUS 15:50DL 3776 · flown by SkyWest	9h 35m	98%	76%
Delta Details →	ATL 14:45 → LAX 16:17DL 753	3h 04m Los Angeles	LAX 19:21 → TUS 20:59DL 3846 · flown by SkyWest	9h 14m	99%	75%
United Details →	ATL 07:05 → IAH 08:15UA 532	1h 17m Houston	IAH 09:32 → TUS 10:07UA 6219 · flown by Mesa	6h 02m	92%	75%
American Details →	ATL 06:01 → DFW 07:33AA 2770	3h 02m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:35 → TUS 11:03AA 2187	8h 02m	99%	73%
United Details →	ATL 08:52 → DEN 10:05UA 340	1h 25m Denver	DEN 11:30 → TUS 12:32UA 1188	6h 40m	93%	72%
Delta Details →	ATL 15:20 → SLC 17:18DL 526	3h 12m Salt Lake City	SLC 20:30 → TUS 21:29DL 4054 · flown by SkyWest	9h 09m	99%	71%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	ATL 07:04 → SEA 09:27AS 377	52m Seattle	SEA 10:19 → TUS 13:31AS 648	9h 27m	74%	50%
American Details →	ATL 20:24 → DFW 21:50AA 2403	59m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 22:49 → TUS 23:19AA 1580	5h 55m	63%	36%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON