Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 07:25, is the safest bet: 84% chance of reaching Traverse City on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Traverse City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ATL 07:25 → MSP 09:00DL 2668	1h 24m Minneapolis	MSP 10:24 → TVC 12:54DL 3995 · flown by SkyWest	5h 29m	97%	84%
Delta Details →	ATL 17:11 → DTW 19:14DL 2067	3h 45m Detroit	DTW 22:59 → TVC 00:08 +1DL 2424	6h 57m	99%	76%
Delta Details →	ATL 09:55 → MSP 11:30DL 2090	3h 55m Minneapolis	MSP 15:25 → TVC 17:55DL 4915 · flown by Endeavor	8h 00m	100%	49%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON