Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 9 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: DL 1817 at 08:36 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–25%.

Safest bet that day DL 1817 ATL 08:36 → TYS 09:40 · 10% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 3042 ATL 17:45 → TYS 18:44 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


DL 1817 Delta	ATL 08:36	TYS 09:40	10%	2%	0.8%	no record
DL 1743 Delta Flight history →	ATL 10:10	TYS 11:10	12%	2%	0.7%	91%
DL 1148 Delta Flight history →	ATL 13:52	TYS 14:48	17%	3%	0.8%	80%
DL 2571 Delta Flight history →	ATL 16:16	TYS 17:16	23%	4%	0.8%	70%
DL 3072 Delta Flight history →	ATL 22:53	TYS 23:52	24%	6%	0.8%	81%
DL 3042 Delta Flight history →	ATL 17:45	TYS 18:44	25%	5%	0.8%	79%
DL 4724 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	ATL 12:17	TYS 13:16	20%	7%	0.0%	80%
DL 5203 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	ATL 19:06	TYS 20:08	27%	13%	1.2%	73%
DL 5224 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	ATL 20:44	TYS 21:49	33%	14%	1.0%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON