Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 9 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: OO 3739 at 10:22 is the safest bet, 17% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–27%.

Safest bet that day OO 3739 ATL 10:22 → XNA 11:22 · 17% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 2771 ATL 17:14 → XNA 18:05 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 60% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


OO 3739 SkyWest	ATL 10:22	XNA 11:22	17%	8%	1.0%	no record
DL 3747 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ATL 23:03	XNA 00:04	18%	8%	1.0%	82%
OO 3785 SkyWest	ATL 13:41	XNA 14:40	18%	8%	0.9%	no record
DL 1710 Delta	ATL 19:33	XNA 20:31	27%	8%	0.8%	no record
DL 2771 Delta Flight history →	ATL 17:14	XNA 18:05	27%	8%	0.8%	60%
DL 5339 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	ATL 08:05	XNA 08:59	15%	5%	1.9%	85%
DL 5128 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	ATL 15:45	XNA 16:41	23%	14%	0.6%	77%
DL 5130 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	ATL 21:15	XNA 22:13	35%	18%	4.3%	65%
DL 5159 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	ATL 19:28	XNA 20:24	37%	17%	0.8%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON