Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, DL 1436 at 05:31, with a 6% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 1436 Delta Flight history →	ATW 05:31	ATL 08:43	6%	3%	0.7%	83%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Atlanta on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Atlanta is 1 h ahead of Appleton). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ATW 07:00 → DTW 09:25DL 4176 · flown by SkyWest	1h 06m Detroit	DTW 10:31 → ATL 12:27DL 2856	4h 27m	93%	83%
American Details →	ATW 05:29 → ORD 06:40AA 3721 · flown by Envoy	1h 43m Chicago	ORD 08:23 → ATL 11:37AA 851	5h 08m	98%	79%
Delta Details →	ATW 06:00 → MSP 07:20DL 4995 · flown by Endeavor	1h 06m Minneapolis	MSP 08:26 → ATL 11:54DL 1052	4h 54m	90%	78%
Delta Details →	ATW 11:27 → MSP 12:48DL 4951 · flown by Endeavor	3h 53m Minneapolis	MSP 16:41 → ATL 20:20DL 2021	7h 53m	96%	77%
United Details →	ATW 08:15 → ORD 09:45UA 4190 · flown by GoJet	2h 11m Chicago	ORD 11:56 → ATL 15:07UA 2779	5h 52m	94%	75%
American Details →	ATW 06:09 → DFW 09:03AA 4189 · flown by Envoy	3h 05m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:08 → ATL 15:33AA 1008	8h 24m	98%	74%
Delta Details →	ATW 11:09 → DTW 13:30DL 4440 · flown by SkyWest	1h 29m Detroit	DTW 14:59 → ATL 17:03DL 1983	4h 54m	90%	73%
Delta Details →	ATW 14:05 → DTW 16:30DL 4696 · flown by Endeavor	3h 41m Detroit	DTW 20:11 → ATL 22:16DL 2053	7h 11m	98%	72%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	ATW 15:44 → ORD 17:05UA 4391 · flown by GoJet	1h 15m Chicago	ORD 18:20 → ATL 21:41UA 1398	4h 57m	71%	33%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON