tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, UA 1248 at 08:47, with a 11% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 1248 United ATW 08:47 DEN 10:28 11% 6% 0.8% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Denver on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Denver is 1 h behind Appleton). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → ATW 07:00 → DTW 09:25DL 4176 · flown by SkyWest 3h 17m Detroit DTW 12:42 → DEN 13:45DL 1648 7h 45m 99% 83%
DeltaDetails → ATW 05:31 → ATL 08:43DL 1436 1h 12m Atlanta ATL 09:55 → DEN 11:05DL 995 6h 34m 95% 80%
AmericanDetails → ATW 05:29 → ORD 06:40AA 3721 · flown by Envoy 1h 42m Chicago ORD 08:22 → DEN 10:18AA 1225 5h 49m 98% 80%
DeltaDetails → ATW 06:00 → MSP 07:20DL 4995 · flown by Endeavor 3h 40m Minneapolis MSP 11:00 → DEN 12:05DL 2927 7h 05m 94% 75%
AmericanDetails → ATW 06:09 → DFW 09:03AA 4189 · flown by Envoy 1h 38m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:41 → DEN 11:46AA 2359 6h 37m 97% 69%
UnitedDetails → ATW 08:15 → ORD 09:45UA 4190 · flown by GoJet 1h 12m Chicago ORD 10:57 → DEN 12:31UA 2857 5h 16m 93% 68%
DeltaDetails → ATW 11:09 → DTW 13:30DL 4440 · flown by SkyWest 2h 51m Detroit DTW 16:21 → DEN 17:27DL 2431 7h 18m 95% 63%
DeltaDetails → ATW 11:27 → MSP 12:48DL 4951 · flown by Endeavor 1h 39m Minneapolis MSP 14:27 → DEN 15:30DL 1025 5h 03m 83% 61%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → ATW 15:44 → ORD 17:05UA 4391 · flown by GoJet 1h 12m Chicago ORD 18:17 → DEN 20:22UA 1974 5h 38m 71% 33%
UnitedDetails → ATW 12:28 → ORD 13:41UA 4757 · flown by SkyWest 52m Chicago ORD 14:33 → DEN 16:31UA 2803 5h 03m 41% 23%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON