Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: OO 3998 at 05:59 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 12–20%.

Safest bet that day OO 3998 ATW 05:59 → MSP 07:14 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OO 3983 ATW 16:19 → MSP 17:35 · 20% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


OO 3998 SkyWest	ATW 05:59	MSP 07:14	9%	4%	0.7%	no record
OO 4626 SkyWest	ATW 00:03	MSP 01:21	12%	6%	0.7%	no record
OO 3983 SkyWest	ATW 16:19	MSP 17:35	20%	7%	0.8%	no record
DL 4995 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	ATW 06:00	MSP 07:20	10%	10%	5.5%	90%
DL 4951 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	ATW 11:27	MSP 12:48	26%	17%	0.0%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON