Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, WN 921 at 11:46, with a 11% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 921 Southwest	AUS 11:46	AMA 13:19	11%	3%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Amarillo on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	AUS 05:01 → DFW 06:12AA 2563	2h 15m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 08:27 → AMA 09:50AA 3920 · flown by Envoy	4h 49m	98%	85%
American Details →	AUS 09:24 → DFW 10:40AA 862	3h 55m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 14:35 → AMA 16:00AA 3613 · flown by Envoy	6h 36m	97%	78%
American Details →	AUS 18:41 → DFW 19:57AA 3722 · flown by Envoy	2h 43m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 22:40 → AMA 00:08 +1AA 3990 · flown by Envoy	5h 27m	100%	75%
American Details →	AUS 10:33 → DFW 11:49AA 794	1h 33m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 13:22 → AMA 14:47AA 3383 · flown by Envoy	4h 14m	93%	75%
United Details →	AUS 05:07 → IAH 06:12UA 1966	3h 23m Houston	IAH 09:35 → AMA 11:23UA 4821 · flown by CommuteAir	6h 16m	98%	74%
United Details →	AUS 09:35 → IAH 10:45UA 2196	1h 50m Houston	IAH 12:35 → AMA 14:24UA 4817 · flown by CommuteAir	4h 49m	97%	73%
United Details →	AUS 16:20 → IAH 17:39UA 685	3h 02m Houston	IAH 20:41 → AMA 22:51UA 4839 · flown by CommuteAir	6h 31m	96%	68%
United Details →	AUS 11:27 → DEN 12:45UA 779	1h 25m Denver	DEN 14:10 → AMA 16:41UA 5233 · flown by SkyWest	5h 14m	95%	67%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	AUS 15:09 → DFW 16:25AA 2198	52m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 17:17 → AMA 18:41AA 3789 · flown by Envoy	3h 32m	68%	51%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON