tailodds FORECAST
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Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: United via Denver, leaving 05:39, is the safest bet: 78% chance of reaching Aspen on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Aspen on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Aspen is 1 h behind Austin). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → AUS 05:39 → DEN 06:58UA 361 48m Denver DEN 07:46 → ASE 08:47UA 5444 · flown by SkyWest 4h 08m 91% 78%
DeltaDetails → AUS 13:40 → LAX 14:48DL 946 2h 24m Los Angeles LAX 17:12 → ASE 20:25DL 3704 · flown by SkyWest 7h 45m 96% 75%
DeltaDetails → AUS 05:25 → ATL 08:47DL 1344 58m Atlanta ATL 09:45 → ASE 11:22DL 4011 · flown by SkyWest 6h 57m 94% 73%
UnitedDetails → AUS 08:30 → DEN 09:49UA 595 3h 51m Denver DEN 13:40 → ASE 14:44UA 5771 · flown by SkyWest 7h 14m 99% 71%
UnitedDetails → AUS 14:04 → LAX 15:31UA 637 2h 21m Los Angeles LAX 17:52 → ASE 21:19UA 5786 · flown by SkyWest 8h 15m 94% 71%
UnitedDetails → AUS 05:07 → IAH 06:12UA 1966 3h 38m Houston IAH 09:50 → ASE 11:40UA 5814 · flown by SkyWest 7h 33m 99% 70%
UnitedDetails → AUS 12:55 → DEN 14:14UA 1541 3h 11m Denver DEN 17:25 → ASE 18:29UA 5775 · flown by SkyWest 6h 34m 97% 65%
UnitedDetails → AUS 11:27 → DEN 12:45UA 779 3h 37m Denver DEN 16:22 → ASE 17:26UA 5697 · flown by SkyWest 6h 59m 99% 64%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON