Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 13 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 3469 at 06:05 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–44%.

Safest bet that day WN 3469 AUS 06:05 → ATL 09:24 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 4702 AUS 17:34 → ATL 21:16 · 44% chance 15+ min late · usually 51% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3469 Southwest	AUS 06:05	ATL 09:24	6%	1%	0.6%	no record
DL 1344 Delta Flight history →	AUS 05:25	ATL 08:47	6%	3%	0.7%	96%
DL 1258 Delta Flight history →	AUS 06:25	ATL 09:45	7%	3%	0.7%	94%
DL 2899 Delta Flight history →	AUS 08:15	ATL 11:26	10%	3%	0.7%	88%
DL 2976 Delta Flight history →	AUS 10:35	ATL 13:54	11%	3%	0.7%	91%
DL 2886 Delta Flight history →	AUS 12:09	ATL 15:35	16%	3%	0.7%	84%
DL 2011 Delta Flight history →	AUS 13:20	ATL 16:50	18%	4%	0.7%	86%
DL 2104 Delta Flight history →	AUS 15:00	ATL 18:25	22%	5%	0.7%	79%
WN 995 Southwest	AUS 13:50	ATL 17:13	22%	6%	0.6%	no record
DL 1491 Delta Flight history →	AUS 18:24	ATL 21:59	24%	7%	0.8%	76%
DL 1397 Delta Flight history →	AUS 19:20	ATL 22:37	25%	7%	0.8%	80%
WN 334 Southwest	AUS 18:54	ATL 22:12	32%	11%	0.6%	no record
F9 4702 Frontier Flight history →	AUS 17:34	ATL 21:16	44%	15%	1.3%	51%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON