Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 4446 at 07:10 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–28%.

Safest bet that day WN 4446 AUS 07:10 → BNA 09:20 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2030 AUS 16:41 → BNA 18:50 · 28% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4446 Southwest	AUS 07:10	BNA 09:20	6%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 407 Southwest	AUS 10:55	BNA 13:04	11%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 1716 Southwest	AUS 12:55	BNA 15:04	21%	5%	0.6%	no record
WN 2885 Southwest	AUS 22:55	BNA 01:04	22%	8%	0.6%	no record
DL 3945 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	AUS 15:34	BNA 18:02	23%	11%	0.5%	60%
WN 1851 Southwest	AUS 16:22	BNA 18:29	26%	8%	0.5%	no record
DL 4163 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	AUS 18:57	BNA 21:18	26%	11%	0.6%	72%
WN 2030 Southwest	AUS 16:41	BNA 18:50	28%	9%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON