tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, WN 548 at 18:55, with a 39% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 548 Southwest AUS 18:55 BUR 20:16 39% 13% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Burbank on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Burbank is 2 h behind Austin). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AlaskaDetails → AUS 07:15 → PDX 09:25AS 541 1h 23m Portland PDX 10:48 → BUR 13:11AS 318 7h 56m 96% 81%
UnitedDetails → AUS 08:30 → DEN 09:49UA 595 1h 26m Denver DEN 11:15 → BUR 12:48UA 2154 6h 18m 96% 74%
DeltaDetails → AUS 06:25 → ATL 09:45DL 1258 1h 34m Atlanta ATL 11:19 → BUR 12:55DL 483 8h 30m 97% 72%
AmericanDetails → AUS 06:00 → DFW 07:19AA 579 2h 57m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:16 → BUR 11:34AA 1208 7h 34m 98% 68%
UnitedDetails → AUS 13:35 → SFO 15:41UA 1336 2h 21m San Francisco SFO 18:02 → BUR 19:28UA 2001 7h 53m 95% 68%
UnitedDetails → AUS 05:57 → SFO 07:48UA 2177 2h 35m San Francisco SFO 10:23 → BUR 11:49UA 2115 7h 52m 99% 65%
UnitedDetails → AUS 15:35 → SFO 17:24UA 442 3h 23m San Francisco SFO 20:47 → BUR 22:18UA 794 8h 43m 94% 62%
UnitedDetails → AUS 08:40 → SFO 10:25UA 1668 3h 25m San Francisco SFO 13:50 → BUR 15:17UA 626 8h 37m 98% 61%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → AUS 18:41 → DFW 19:56AA 3722 · flown by Envoy 50m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:46 → BUR 21:58AA 2597 5h 17m 61% 29%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON