Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: United via Dulles, leaving 07:30, is the safest bet: 87% chance of reaching Charleston on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 70% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Charleston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Charleston is 1 h ahead of Austin). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	AUS 07:30 → IAD 11:48UA 525	1h 24m Dulles	IAD 13:12 → CHS 15:10UA 1952	6h 40m	98%	87%
United Details →	AUS 05:39 → DEN 06:58UA 361	2h 52m Denver	DEN 09:50 → CHS 15:14UA 1003	8h 35m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	AUS 05:25 → ATL 08:47DL 1344	1h 59m Atlanta	ATL 10:46 → CHS 12:00DL 3107	5h 35m	95%	82%
Delta Details →	AUS 06:25 → ATL 09:45DL 1258	2h 46m Atlanta	ATL 12:31 → CHS 13:42DL 2179	6h 17m	98%	81%
Delta Details →	AUS 08:15 → ATL 11:26DL 2899	3h 14m Atlanta	ATL 14:40 → CHS 15:53DL 1381	6h 38m	99%	81%
American Details →	AUS 06:07 → CLT 09:54AA 1032	3h 19m Charlotte	CLT 13:13 → CHS 14:25AA 5222 · flown by PSA	7h 18m	100%	78%
United Details →	AUS 09:35 → IAH 10:45UA 2196	1h 30m Houston	IAH 12:15 → CHS 16:02UA 6295 · flown by Mesa	5h 27m	97%	77%
Delta Details →	AUS 10:35 → ATL 13:54DL 2976	2h 05m Atlanta	ATL 15:59 → CHS 17:16DL 2174	5h 41m	99%	74%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	AUS 13:20 → ATL 16:50DL 2011	49m Atlanta	ATL 17:39 → CHS 18:54DL 3179	4h 34m	70%	49%
United Details →	AUS 16:20 → IAH 17:39UA 685	57m Houston	IAH 18:36 → CHS 22:10UA 8200	4h 50m	74%	49%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON