Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 1032 at 06:07 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 15–32%.

Safest bet that day AA 1032 AUS 06:07 → CLT 09:54 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest AA 1161 AUS 17:47 → CLT 21:41 · 32% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1032 American Flight history →	AUS 06:07	CLT 09:54	10%	6%	1.7%	92%
AA 2947 American	AUS 08:21	CLT 12:19	15%	6%	0.9%	no record
AA 1882 American	AUS 11:23	CLT 15:15	16%	6%	1.0%	no record
AA 1052 American	AUS 15:49	CLT 19:46	29%	11%	1.0%	no record
AA 1161 American Flight history →	AUS 17:47	CLT 21:41	32%	10%	0.9%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON