tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, WN 1065 at 13:20, with a 17% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 1065 Southwest AUS 13:20 CVG 16:57 17% 6% 0.6% no record
DL 5005 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record AUS 10:30 CVG 14:12 17% 9% 0.0% 83%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Hebron on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Hebron is 1 h ahead of Austin). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → AUS 07:20 → BOS 12:29DL 2098 1h 43m Boston BOS 14:12 → CVG 16:45DL 5789 · flown by Republic 8h 25m 97% 86%
DeltaDetails → AUS 06:10 → MSP 09:00DL 1242 3h 47m Minneapolis MSP 12:47 → CVG 15:39DL 1776 8h 29m 99% 86%
UnitedDetails → AUS 05:39 → DEN 06:58UA 361 2h 42m Denver DEN 09:40 → CVG 14:27UA 1978 7h 48m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → AUS 05:25 → ATL 08:47DL 1344 1h 13m Atlanta ATL 10:00 → CVG 11:28DL 3160 5h 03m 95% 84%
UnitedDetails → AUS 05:07 → IAH 06:12UA 1966 1h 18m Houston IAH 07:30 → CVG 10:59UA 6312 · flown by Mesa 4h 52m 95% 82%
UnitedDetails → AUS 06:09 → EWR 10:56UA 1760 2h 57m Newark EWR 13:53 → CVG 16:02UA 3455 · flown by Republic 8h 53m 99% 82%
DeltaDetails → AUS 13:48 → MSP 16:35DL 2062 3h 45m Minneapolis MSP 20:20 → CVG 23:11DL 1469 8h 23m 99% 80%
DeltaDetails → AUS 06:25 → ATL 09:45DL 1258 1h 14m Atlanta ATL 10:59 → CVG 12:22DL 3149 4h 57m 95% 80%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → AUS 17:47 → CLT 21:41AA 1161 49m Charlotte CLT 22:30 → CVG 23:58AA 626 5h 11m 56% 37%
DeltaDetails → AUS 14:30 → SLC 16:39DL 3908 · flown by SkyWest 46m Salt Lake City SLC 17:25 → CVG 22:46DL 2291 7h 16m 51% 37%
UnitedDetails → AUS 17:20 → ORD 20:21UA 1990 1h 08m Chicago ORD 21:29 → CVG 23:46UA 1223 5h 26m 64% 28%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON