tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, WN 360 at 11:25, with a 20% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 360 Southwest AUS 11:25 DCA 15:32 20% 5% 0.7% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Washington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Washington is 1 h ahead of Austin). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → AUS 05:07 → IAH 06:12UA 1966 1h 32m Houston IAH 07:44 → DCA 11:40UA 512 5h 33m 96% 86%
DeltaDetails → AUS 06:10 → MSP 09:00DL 1242 1h 25m Minneapolis MSP 10:25 → DCA 13:48DL 2983 6h 38m 96% 84%
DeltaDetails → AUS 07:20 → BOS 12:29DL 2098 3h 16m Boston BOS 15:45 → DCA 17:49DL 5689 · flown by Republic 9h 29m 98% 83%
UnitedDetails → AUS 05:39 → DEN 06:58UA 361 2h 33m Denver DEN 09:31 → DCA 15:00UA 789 8h 21m 99% 82%
DeltaDetails → AUS 05:25 → ATL 08:47DL 1344 53m Atlanta ATL 09:40 → DCA 11:27DL 380 5h 02m 91% 80%
AmericanDetails → AUS 05:01 → DFW 06:12AA 2563 2h 28m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 08:40 → DCA 12:42AA 1177 6h 41m 98% 80%
DeltaDetails → AUS 06:25 → ATL 09:45DL 1258 1h 14m Atlanta ATL 10:59 → DCA 12:46DL 1798 5h 21m 95% 79%
DeltaDetails → AUS 13:48 → MSP 16:35DL 2062 3h 55m Minneapolis MSP 20:30 → DCA 23:56DL 2961 9h 08m 99% 77%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → AUS 16:10 → IAH 17:25UA 4004 · flown by Mesa 48m Houston IAH 18:13 → DCA 22:33UA 8150 5h 23m 57% 40%
JetBlueDetails → AUS 07:00 → FLL 10:52B6 2272 50m Fort Lauderdale FLL 11:42 → DCA 14:15B6 1680 6h 15m 63% 38%
AmericanDetails → AUS 17:47 → CLT 21:41AA 1161 46m Charlotte CLT 22:27 → DCA 23:53AA 1269 5h 06m 47% 31%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON