Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 18 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: UA 361 at 05:39 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 28–40%.

Safest bet that day UA 361 AUS 05:39 → DEN 06:58 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 97% on time Riskiest WN 314 AUS 17:40 → DEN 18:56 · 40% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 361 United Flight history →	AUS 05:39	DEN 06:58	4%	2%	0.7%	97%
WN 302 Southwest	AUS 06:16	DEN 07:32	5%	2%	0.6%	no record
DL 3876 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	AUS 07:25	DEN 08:48	7%	4%	0.6%	92%
WN 4626 Southwest	AUS 08:47	DEN 10:02	10%	2%	0.6%	no record
UA 595 United Flight history →	AUS 08:30	DEN 09:49	10%	4%	0.7%	89%
WN 1792 Southwest	AUS 11:06	DEN 12:20	11%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 779 United Flight history →	AUS 11:27	DEN 12:45	12%	5%	0.7%	92%
UA 1541 United Flight history →	AUS 12:55	DEN 14:14	17%	8%	0.7%	96%worse than usual
WN 2790 Southwest	AUS 12:11	DEN 13:28	17%	4%	0.6%	no record
WN 3097 Southwest	AUS 14:06	DEN 15:23	25%	7%	0.6%	no record
UA 2447 United Flight history →	AUS 14:45	DEN 16:22	26%	11%	0.9%	82%
F9 2047 Frontier Flight history →	AUS 20:19	DEN 21:48	28%	8%	0.9%	70%
WN 675 Southwest	AUS 19:55	DEN 21:09	28%	11%	0.7%	no record
UA 439 United Flight history →	AUS 18:29	DEN 20:00	31%	10%	0.9%	68%
UA 3752 United	AUS 16:24	DEN 18:00	34%	11%	0.9%	no record
WN 1294 Southwest	AUS 16:25	DEN 17:39	34%	10%	0.7%	no record
DL 3669 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	AUS 16:49	DEN 18:14	37%	12%	0.7%	66%
WN 314 Southwest	AUS 17:40	DEN 18:56	40%	12%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON