Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: UA 1760 at 06:09 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 8–40%.

Safest bet that day UA 1760 AUS 06:09 → EWR 10:56 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest UA 1399 AUS 14:26 → EWR 19:03 · 40% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1760 United Flight history →	AUS 06:09	EWR 10:56	7%	3%	1.2%	93%
UA 1449 United Flight history →	AUS 07:05	EWR 11:50	8%	3%	1.2%	93%
UA 2172 United	AUS 08:55	EWR 13:37	17%	6%	1.1%	no record
UA 1499 United Flight history →	AUS 11:17	EWR 16:15	20%	8%	1.1%	85%
UA 545 United Flight history →	AUS 17:38	EWR 22:37	33%	14%	1.1%	70%
UA 1399 United	AUS 14:26	EWR 19:03	40%	15%	1.0%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON