Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: UA 525 at 07:30 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 13–20%.

Safest bet that day UA 525 AUS 07:30 → IAD 11:48 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest UA 376 AUS 17:16 → IAD 21:47 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 525 United Flight history →	AUS 07:30	IAD 11:48	7%	3%	0.8%	95%
UA 2344 United Flight history →	AUS 12:00	IAD 16:19	13%	4%	0.8%	89%
UA 376 United Flight history →	AUS 17:16	IAD 21:47	20%	6%	0.7%	89%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON