Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 9 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: UA 1966 at 05:07 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–30%.

Safest bet that day UA 1966 AUS 05:07 → IAH 06:12 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest UA 1326 AUS 18:04 → IAH 19:10 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


UA 1966 United Flight history →	AUS 05:07	IAH 06:12	9%	4%	1.8%	94%
UA 2196 United Flight history →	AUS 09:35	IAH 10:45	15%	5%	0.8%	76%
UA 350 United	AUS 12:14	IAH 13:20	21%	7%	0.8%	no record
UA 2393 United Flight history →	AUS 07:10	IAH 08:13	22%	5%	1.1%	56%
UA 685 United Flight history →	AUS 16:20	IAH 17:39	24%	9%	0.8%	67%
UA 730 United	AUS 15:34	IAH 16:37	27%	9%	0.8%	no record
UA 282 United	AUS 18:42	IAH 19:47	29%	10%	0.9%	no record
UA 1326 United Flight history →	AUS 18:04	IAH 19:10	30%	12%	0.8%	68%
UA 4004 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	AUS 16:10	IAH 17:25	27%	17%	0.0%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON