tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 14–20% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
OO 107 SkyWest AUS 10:10 JAX 13:45 14% 8% 0.7% no record
WN 1604 Southwest AUS 12:30 JAX 16:03 20% 5% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Jacksonville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Jacksonville is 1 h ahead of Austin). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → AUS 08:00 → DTW 11:58DL 559 3h 04m Detroit DTW 15:02 → JAX 17:27DL 2994 8h 27m 98% 84%
UnitedDetails → AUS 05:07 → IAH 06:12UA 1966 1h 23m Houston IAH 07:35 → JAX 10:56UA 6146 · flown by Mesa 4h 49m 95% 82%
AmericanDetails → AUS 05:01 → DFW 06:12AA 2563 1h 35m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 07:47 → JAX 11:21AA 1061 5h 20m 97% 82%
DeltaDetails → AUS 05:25 → ATL 08:47DL 1344 2h 01m Atlanta ATL 10:48 → JAX 12:00DL 2923 5h 35m 95% 82%
UnitedDetails → AUS 07:10 → IAH 08:13UA 2393 3h 57m Houston IAH 12:10 → JAX 15:37UA 4048 · flown by Mesa 7h 27m 100% 82%
DeltaDetails → AUS 06:25 → ATL 09:45DL 1258 2h 52m Atlanta ATL 12:37 → JAX 13:45DL 3024 6h 20m 98% 80%
DeltaDetails → AUS 08:15 → ATL 11:26DL 2899 2h 27m Atlanta ATL 13:53 → JAX 15:05DL 2990 5h 50m 98% 78%
DeltaDetails → AUS 07:35 → JFK 12:25DL 1411 1h 30m New York JFK 13:55 → JAX 16:44DL 1035 8h 09m 97% 78%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → AUS 16:10 → IAH 17:25UA 4004 · flown by Mesa 50m Houston IAH 18:15 → JAX 21:41UA 4035 · flown by Mesa 4h 31m 64% 50%
UnitedDetails → AUS 18:04 → IAH 19:10UA 1326 50m Houston IAH 20:00 → JAX 23:20UA 2293 4h 16m 57% 39%
AmericanDetails → AUS 18:06 → MIA 21:59AA 2324 54m Miami MIA 22:53 → JAX 00:15 +1AA 416 5h 09m 59% 38%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON