Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 1087 at 06:15 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 34–39%.

Safest bet that day WN 1087 AUS 06:15 → LAS 07:09 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4578 AUS 21:00 → LAS 21:53 · 39% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1087 Southwest	AUS 06:15	LAS 07:09	5%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 345 Southwest	AUS 08:15	LAS 09:11	11%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 4296 Southwest	AUS 11:12	LAS 12:07	17%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 464 Southwest	AUS 12:57	LAS 13:53	29%	6%	0.6%	no record
WN 4200 Southwest	AUS 14:47	LAS 15:40	34%	9%	0.6%	no record
DL 2260 Delta Flight history →	AUS 17:28	LAS 18:19	34%	12%	0.8%	72%
F9 3645 Frontier Flight history →	AUS 12:47	LAS 13:40	35%	11%	0.9%	77%worse than usual
WN 2415 Southwest	AUS 19:45	LAS 20:38	38%	11%	0.6%	no record
WN 4578 Southwest	AUS 21:00	LAS 21:53	39%	11%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON