Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 14 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 4776 at 05:15 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 27–39%.

Safest bet that day WN 4776 AUS 05:15 → LAX 06:32 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1291 AUS 20:43 → LAX 21:56 · 39% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4776 Southwest	AUS 05:15	LAX 06:32	5%	1%	0.6%	no record
AA 6472 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	AUS 06:59	LAX 08:23	11%	4%	0.6%	100%worse than usual
DL 306 Delta Flight history →	AUS 07:30	LAX 08:37	14%	4%	0.7%	92%
UA 357 United Flight history →	AUS 08:04	LAX 09:20	14%	5%	0.7%	92%
OO 6243 SkyWest	AUS 14:58	LAX 16:21	15%	6%	0.5%	no record
UA 637 United Flight history →	AUS 14:04	LAX 15:31	17%	6%	0.6%	89%
DL 946 Delta Flight history →	AUS 13:40	LAX 14:48	17%	4%	0.7%	90%
WN 356 Southwest	AUS 12:45	LAX 14:00	25%	5%	0.6%	no record
DL 986 Delta Flight history →	AUS 16:15	LAX 17:20	27%	6%	0.7%	68%
DL 1584 Delta Flight history →	AUS 20:30	LAX 21:43	31%	7%	0.8%	84%worse than usual
UA 419 United	AUS 19:51	LAX 21:06	31%	9%	0.7%	no record
WN 359 Southwest	AUS 22:45	LAX 00:01	34%	10%	0.6%	no record
WN 4807 Southwest	AUS 17:50	LAX 19:05	38%	10%	0.5%	no record
AA 1291 American Flight history →	AUS 20:43	LAX 21:56	39%	11%	0.7%	72%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON