tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, WN 1006 at 09:55, with a 6% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 1006 Southwest AUS 09:55 MAF 11:30 6% 3% 0.8% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Midland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → AUS 05:07 → IAH 06:12UA 1966 3h 23m Houston IAH 09:35 → MAF 11:07UA 6186 · flown by Mesa 6h 00m 98% 85%
UnitedDetails → AUS 09:35 → IAH 10:45UA 2196 3h 50m Houston IAH 14:35 → MAF 16:15UA 6322 · flown by Mesa 6h 40m 99% 83%
AmericanDetails → AUS 05:01 → DFW 06:12AA 2563 2h 14m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 08:26 → MAF 09:48AA 3643 · flown by Envoy 4h 47m 98% 82%
UnitedDetails → AUS 05:39 → DEN 06:58UA 361 3h 07m Denver DEN 10:05 → MAF 12:59UA 5333 · flown by SkyWest 7h 20m 99% 81%
UnitedDetails → AUS 18:04 → IAH 19:10UA 1326 2h 54m Houston IAH 22:04 → MAF 23:44UA 6276 · flown by Mesa 5h 40m 96% 77%
AmericanDetails → AUS 10:33 → DFW 11:49AA 794 3h 47m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 15:36 → MAF 16:53AA 3653 · flown by Envoy 6h 20m 98% 76%
AmericanDetails → AUS 15:09 → DFW 16:25AA 2198 3h 43m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:08 → MAF 21:30AA 4172 · flown by Envoy 6h 21m 92% 67%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON