Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 9 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 366 at 05:00 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 27–32%.

Safest bet that day WN 366 AUS 05:00 → MCO 08:39 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 370 AUS 18:47 → MCO 22:27 · 32% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 366 Southwest	AUS 05:00	MCO 08:39	3%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 2522 Southwest	AUS 08:00	MCO 11:39	7%	2%	0.7%	no record
DL 2259 Delta Flight history →	AUS 08:00	MCO 11:40	8%	3%	0.9%	87%
F9 4524 Frontier Flight history →	AUS 10:48	MCO 14:41	18%	8%	3.0%	80%
WN 1536 Southwest	AUS 11:20	MCO 15:01	19%	5%	1.4%	no record
DL 648 Delta	AUS 15:20	MCO 19:04	23%	8%	1.0%	no record
WN 1567 Southwest	AUS 21:10	MCO 00:48	27%	8%	0.7%	no record
WN 4489 Southwest	AUS 13:35	MCO 17:16	28%	7%	0.8%	no record
WN 370 Southwest	AUS 18:47	MCO 22:27	32%	10%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON