tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 15–21% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 1317 Southwest AUS 13:55 MEM 15:47 15% 5% 0.7% no record
DL 3952 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history → AUS 19:55 MEM 21:48 21% 9% 0.8% 77%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Memphis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → AUS 06:25 → ATL 09:45DL 1258 2h 30m Atlanta ATL 12:15 → MEM 12:32DL 2778 6h 07m 98% 84%
DeltaDetails → AUS 08:15 → ATL 11:26DL 2899 2h 22m Atlanta ATL 13:48 → MEM 14:14DL 733 5h 59m 98% 80%
DeltaDetails → AUS 05:25 → ATL 08:47DL 1344 1h 23m Atlanta ATL 10:10 → MEM 10:32DL 2937 5h 07m 95% 79%
DeltaDetails → AUS 10:35 → ATL 13:54DL 2976 2h 46m Atlanta ATL 16:40 → MEM 17:06DL 1681 6h 31m 100% 76%
AmericanDetails → AUS 06:07 → CLT 09:54AA 1032 2h 58m Charlotte CLT 12:52 → MEM 13:46AA 2852 7h 39m 96% 76%
AmericanDetails → AUS 09:24 → DFW 10:40AA 862 1h 55m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:35 → MEM 14:15AA 3888 · flown by Envoy 4h 51m 93% 75%
UnitedDetails → AUS 08:30 → DEN 09:49UA 595 1h 11m Denver DEN 11:00 → MEM 14:29UA 2789 5h 59m 93% 74%
AmericanDetails → AUS 05:01 → DFW 06:12AA 2563 3h 27m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 09:39 → MEM 11:11AA 1935 6h 10m 98% 74%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → AUS 17:20 → ORD 20:21UA 1990 59m Chicago ORD 21:20 → MEM 23:21UA 2317 6h 01m 47% 25%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON