Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 406 at 05:02 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 32–38%.

Safest bet that day AA 406 AUS 05:02 → MIA 08:58 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest AA 2324 AUS 18:06 → MIA 21:59 · 38% chance 15+ min late · usually 48% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 406 American Flight history →	AUS 05:02	MIA 08:58	9%	4%	1.2%	91%
DL 2507 Delta Flight history →	AUS 08:35	MIA 12:35	16%	5%	3.0%	90%
WN 3693 Southwest	AUS 14:40	MIA 18:31	32%	10%	0.9%	no record
MQ 4124 Envoy	AUS 16:13	MIA 20:18	32%	11%	1.4%	no record
AA 812 American Flight history →	AUS 12:01	MIA 16:03	33%	8%	4.4%	80%worse than usual
AA 2324 American Flight history →	AUS 18:06	MIA 21:59	38%	12%	1.2%	48%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON