tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, WN 692 at 16:55, with a 23% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 692 Southwest AUS 16:55 MKE 19:38 23% 10% 0.7% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Milwaukee on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → AUS 05:39 → DEN 06:58UA 361 2h 59m Denver DEN 09:57 → MKE 13:25UA 1836 7h 46m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → AUS 05:25 → ATL 08:47DL 1344 2h 04m Atlanta ATL 10:51 → MKE 11:53DL 1151 6h 28m 95% 85%
DeltaDetails → AUS 06:10 → MSP 09:00DL 1242 1h 05m Minneapolis MSP 10:05 → MKE 11:17DL 561 5h 07m 96% 85%
UnitedDetails → AUS 05:07 → IAH 06:12UA 1966 1h 08m Houston IAH 07:20 → MKE 10:05UA 6149 · flown by Mesa 4h 58m 92% 84%
DeltaDetails → AUS 08:15 → ATL 11:26DL 2899 2h 44m Atlanta ATL 14:10 → MKE 15:09DL 2152 6h 54m 98% 82%
UnitedDetails → AUS 09:35 → IAH 10:45UA 2196 3h 35m Houston IAH 14:20 → MKE 17:06UA 6164 · flown by Mesa 7h 31m 99% 79%
DeltaDetails → AUS 10:35 → ATL 13:54DL 2976 2h 43m Atlanta ATL 16:37 → MKE 17:40DL 1206 7h 05m 100% 78%
DeltaDetails → AUS 09:43 → MSP 12:41DL 3813 · flown by SkyWest 1h 13m Minneapolis MSP 13:54 → MKE 15:09DL 2006 5h 26m 91% 77%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → AUS 18:24 → ATL 21:59DL 1491 53m Atlanta ATL 22:52 → MKE 23:56DL 1268 5h 32m 73% 59%
UnitedDetails → AUS 13:01 → ORD 15:57UA 456 58m Chicago ORD 16:55 → MKE 18:00UA 5262 · flown by SkyWest 4h 59m 64% 27%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON