Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 445 at 06:10 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 28–31%.

Safest bet that day WN 445 AUS 06:10 → MSY 07:47 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3143 AUS 17:50 → MSY 19:27 · 31% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 445 Southwest	AUS 06:10	MSY 07:47	2%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 447 Southwest	AUS 11:55	MSY 13:32	13%	3%	0.9%	no record
OO 141 SkyWest	AUS 13:55	MSY 15:35	19%	8%	1.1%	no record
WN 383 Southwest	AUS 15:20	MSY 16:57	23%	7%	1.3%	no record
WN 568 Southwest	AUS 21:55	MSY 23:32	28%	11%	1.0%	no record
WN 3143 Southwest	AUS 17:50	MSY 19:27	31%	11%	1.3%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON