Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, WN 2166 at 22:25, with a 26% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 2166 Southwest	AUS 22:25	OAK 00:14	26%	10%	0.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Oakland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Oakland is 2 h behind Austin). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	AUS 19:25 → SLC 21:21DL 2581	1h 29m Salt Lake City	SLC 22:50 → OAK 23:50DL 3797 · flown by SkyWest	6h 25m	87%	73%
Delta Details →	AUS 12:20 → SLC 14:09DL 2671	1h 11m Salt Lake City	SLC 15:20 → OAK 16:21DL 3903 · flown by SkyWest	6h 01m	86%	68%
Alaska Details →	AUS 16:17 → SEA 18:47AS 503	2h 00m Seattle	SEA 20:47 → OAK 22:56AS 706	8h 39m	93%	59%
Frontier Details →	AUS 12:47 → LAS 13:40F9 3645	2h 35m Las Vegas	LAS 16:15 → OAK 18:01F9 3837	7h 14m	91%	50%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON