tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, WN 984 at 16:10, with a 24% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 984 Southwest AUS 16:10 OKC 17:40 24% 8% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Oklahoma City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → AUS 05:39 → DEN 06:58UA 361 1h 02m Denver DEN 08:00 → OKC 10:47UA 6029 · flown by SkyWest 5h 08m 96% 85%
UnitedDetails → AUS 09:35 → IAH 10:45UA 2196 3h 50m Houston IAH 14:35 → OKC 16:15UA 6189 · flown by Mesa 6h 40m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → AUS 05:25 → ATL 08:47DL 1344 2h 18m Atlanta ATL 11:05 → OKC 12:14DL 2020 6h 49m 96% 83%
UnitedDetails → AUS 05:07 → IAH 06:12UA 1966 1h 13m Houston IAH 07:25 → OKC 08:57UA 6178 · flown by Mesa 3h 50m 94% 83%
UnitedDetails → AUS 07:10 → IAH 08:13UA 2393 1h 33m Houston IAH 09:46 → OKC 11:22UA 4344 · flown by CommuteAir 4h 12m 97% 81%
AmericanDetails → AUS 05:01 → DFW 06:12AA 2563 1h 00m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 07:12 → OKC 08:23AA 4946 · flown by SkyWest 3h 22m 93% 77%
AmericanDetails → AUS 06:00 → DFW 07:19AA 579 1h 49m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 09:08 → OKC 10:20AA 1902 4h 20m 97% 75%
AmericanDetails → AUS 06:53 → DFW 08:10AA 2196 2h 26m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:36 → OKC 11:49AA 3099 4h 56m 97% 74%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → AUS 17:47 → CLT 21:41AA 1161 59m Charlotte CLT 22:40 → OKC 00:22 +1AA 768 6h 35m 66% 45%
UnitedDetails → AUS 16:10 → IAH 17:25UA 4004 · flown by Mesa 47m Houston IAH 18:12 → OKC 19:53UA 5278 · flown by SkyWest 3h 43m 54% 39%
UnitedDetails → AUS 18:04 → IAH 19:10UA 1326 46m Houston IAH 19:56 → OKC 21:27UA 1084 3h 23m 45% 32%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON